Terrance Ferguson and an Examination of Elite NBA Draft Talent Selected Outside of the Lottery

This past Monday, the Boston Celtics traded the number one pick in the 2017 NBA draft to the Philadelphia 76ers for the number 3 pick and a future pick (a protected 2018 pick from the Los Angeles Lakers or an unprotected 2019 from the Sacramento Kings).

My first thought was, “Ooooh Danny, what is you doing baby?” Then I thought to rush over to TheRinger.com to get the thoughts of my favorite Boston Celtics fan and sports personality Bill Simmons.

On the Ringer NBA Podcast, Simmons, TheRinger.com staff writer Kevin O’Connor, and TheRinger.com Executive Editor Chris Ryan were doing their best Trump media surrogate impersonation trying to make sense of why Danny Ainge would do some silly shit like trading the number one pick (i.e. Markelle Fultz) for lessor draft assets.

In summary, Simmons, O’Connor, and Ryan surmised that Danny Ainge views the talent in the 2017 NBA draft as so similar at the top of the draft, that a team can get the draft’s best player in the later lottery.  Moreover, they advocated if Ainge could get the best player at number three and add an additioanal asset, then it is a smart personnel decision. They highlighted the 1998 and 1999 drafts as examples of when players like Dirk Nowitski, Paul Pierce, Lamar Odom, and Shawn Marion had better (or more impactful) careers than the players drafted first (Michael Oluwokandi and Elton Brand) in those drafts.

Upon hearing this, I immediately thought this was an illogical attempt from Simmons, O’Connor, and Ryan to cape for Simmons’ homie Danny Ainge. Today, NBA franchises are much smarter than they were in 1998 and 1999 and teams pour far more resources into the draft than they did in 1998 & 1999.

However, the thought of identifying elite NBA draft talent is an interesting exploration. I’ve always been perplexed with how, almost annually, elite NBA talent falls outside of the lottery picks.  The following is an examination of elite talent (and other lottery level talent) that fell outside of the lottery and a nomination of the player in the 2017 draft that fits this profile.

Elite Talent Selected Outside of the Lottery Since 2000

In the new millennium, All-NBA and All-Star level talent regularly fell out of the lottery in the NBA draft. Michael Redd, Zach Randolph, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, Deandre Jordan, Goran Dragic, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Draymond Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rudy Gobert, and Nikola Jokic (Jokic has yet to make an All-NBA team or All-Star team but NBA consensus is that he is sure to do so if he stays healthy) are all examples.

Since 2012, there frequency of these occurrences has slowed some. I am of the opinion that NBA franchises, then suffering from financial strain and personnel mismanagement that led to the 2011 NBA lock-out, saw that emerging teams with elite level young talent on cheap rookie-scale contracts (Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, etc.), placed a greater emphasis on identifying these players and their cheap services.

The 2011 and 2012 NBA Draft

Let’s look at the 2011 and 2012 NBA drafts. In 2011, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Isaiah Thomas (drafted 15, 30, and 60 respectively) were players drafted outside of the lottery that went on to become All-Star and All-NBA players. In 2012 (after the NBA lock-out), the only player in the draft selected outside of the lottery that went on to become an All-NBA/All-Star caliber player was Draymond Green.

Skeptics of this theory would simply propose that the 2011 NBA simply had better talent. But if we look back to reports, 2011 was considered a down draft while 2012 was considered a great draft, flush with talent. Moreover, if 2012 had lessor talent, a player of Draymond Green’s skill-set should have been easier to identify among his peers with supposed lessor talent.

Let’s look at the primary characteristics valued by NBA evaluators of the elite-talent players in the 2011 and 2012 draft that fell outside of the lottery.

Player	Valuable NBA Attributes
Kawhi Leonard	Athleticism, Strength, Wingspan, Large Hands, Positional Versatility, Lateral Movement
Jimmy Butler	Athleticism, Strength, Wingspan, Large Hands, Positional Versatility, Lateral Movement
Isaiah Thomas	Quickness, Shooting
Draymond Green	Wingspan, Positional Versatility

Let’s look at the consensus characteristics that caused these players to drop outside of the lottery.

Player	Deficiencies
Kawhi Leonard	Shooting, Play-Making Ability
Jimmy Butler	Shooting, Play-Making Ability
Isaiah Thomas	Undersized
Draymond Green	Shooting, Undersized

Examining the two drafts evidences that NBA personnel executives, in a manner of 12 months, were able to quickly recognized attributes that indicated elite NBA talent (size notwithstanding).

Elite Talent Selected Outside of the Lottery since 2013-2016

While the NBA has been able to clean-up the overall trend of allowing elite talent to fall outside of the lottery, the caveat here is that since 2013 three players- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rudy Gobert, and Nikola Jokic- have all gone on to become elite NBA talents (again Jokic has yet to make an All-NBA or All-Star team but league-wide consensus is the he is an elite NBA player). The commonality among these players is that they all came from international leagues: Antetokounmpo from the Greek A2 league; Gobert from Cholet Basket of the French League; and Jokic of the Adriatic League.

NBA executives recognized this trend from 2013 and 2014 and quickly placed an increased emphasis on preventing elite international talent from falling outside of the draft. When comparing the 2013 and 2014 NBA draft to the 2014 and 2015 NBA draft, in 2013 and 2014, Dante Exum and Dario Saric (both selected in 2014) were the only international players selected in the lottery of the two drafts. In 2015 and 2016, six international players were selected in the lottery of the tow drafts.

However, potentially elite still made their way to fall through the cracks (I’d like to note here that the players below have less than two years of NBA experience and the analysis below is based off of an examination redrafts of the 2015 and 2016 NBA drafts from popular sports websites where players have outperformed their pick selection).

Willy Hernangomez (drafted 35^th in 2015), Ivica Zubac (drafted 32^nd in 2016), 2016-17 rookie of the year favorite Malcolm Brogdon (drafted 36^th in 2016), and Paul Zipser are all players that fell through the cracks. Hernangomez, Zubac, and Zipser seemingly fell through the cracks due to the still present lack of resources NBA franchises place on international scouting.

While I am not suggesting that Brogdon is similar to the caliber prospect of Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, or Draymond Green, Brogdon has elite NBA attributes (defense, strength, ball-handling) who similar to Leonard, Butler, and Green, fell in the draft due to their inability to shoot at a high level coming out of college.

Similarities to Fallen Draft Talent 2011-2012

In my 30 for 30 voice, what if told you that there was an NBA prospect, currently not projected to be taken in the lottery, that has the attributes of the elite talent that has fallen out of the lottery since 2011?

There is! His name is Terrance Ferguson.

Terrance Ferguson is a 6’7 guard/forward from Dallas, Texas. Ferguson made the unconventional decision to bypass college and play professionally in Australia for the Adelaide 36ers of the Australian Basketball League. 

Like Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, and Draymond Green, Ferguson has attributes consistent of the elites athletes that fell out of the lottery in the past. He also has similar deficiencies that are currently causing him to be overlooked by teams drafting in the lottery.

Ferguson is similar to Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler in that he is an elite NBA attributes. At 6’7 he has ideal height for NBA wings. With 10 inch wide hands, he was one of only two wings players to have hands 10 inches or longer at the NBA draft combine. His 38 inch vertical leap was 6^th highest of any wing at the NBA draft combine (Kawhi Leonard had a 32 inch vertical and Jimmy Butler had a 39 inch vertical).

Ferguson’s shot 31.3% from the longer FIBA three point line (Butler shot 38.3%, Leonard shot 25% from the shorter college3 point line). With a 6’9 wingspan, Ferguson has adequate arm length to project in to a plus defender (Kawhi- 7’3, Butler- 6’7.5).

Similar to Draymond Green has size issues preventing him from being considered a lottery prospect. At 186 pounds, Ferguson is skinny! Kawhi Leonard weighed in at 227 pounds and Jimmy Butler weighed in at 222 pounds.

His slight of weight takes away from his positional versatility as he doesn’t have the size to guard NBA small forwards. Also, his slender frame does not project well for his ability to finish with authority at the rim.

The upside here is unlike Isaiah Thomas and Draymond Green whose height caused them to slide in the draft, NBA strength and conditioning programs can add muscle to his frame.

Ferguson is a streaky shooter but unlike Kawhi Leonard who had to reconstruct his shot, Ferguson’s mechanics are fine. He has bad balance on his three in half court offensives sets (which can be cured with weight gains) and tends to shoot the ball as he is still rising (which can be cured by repetitions in the gym).

Ferguson’s other major flaw is his ball handling going left. His dribble is a bit high and his accuracy is poor when making left-handed passes. With his large hands, a good development coach should be able to cure these ills in a couple of seasons (if not sooner).

Conversely, Ferguson has elite pedigree. Ferguson was a McDonald’s All-American and was rated as high as the 11^th rated senior in the class of 2016.

International Exchange

In my estimation, the primary rationale for Ferguson to lack of consideration as a lottery prospect is his path to the NBA. Ferguson considered Alabama and Arizona but ultimately played in Australia. In doing so, Ferguson took himself out of the sight of NBA scouts.

NBA scouts primarily depend upon consultation from international scouts and rarely make it overseas to scout prospects in person. However, international scouting has vastly improved over the past five years and NBA personnel executives are increasingly finding international scouting to be the equal of domestic scouting.

Another negative consideration in the eyes of NBA personnel executives, American players who traveled overseas to play between high school and the NBA have had mixed results (namely Emmanuel Mundiay and Bandon Jennings). 

Comparing Ferguson’s international experience to Mundiay and Jennings would be a grave misjudgment by NBA executives. Mundiay only played ten games overseas before succumbing to an injury that ended his international experiment.

Brandon Jennings played in the Italian League where player development of American players simply is not a point of emphasis. Jennings only averaged just over 17 minutes per game in Italian Series A play and only 19 minutes per game in Euroleague play.

Ferguson, on the other hand, started his internal career as bench player and ultimately carved out a role on the 36ers and earning 17 starts. Draft Express described Ferguson’s international experience as follows, “Ferguson is even getting some crunch time minutes in highly competitive games, and the coaching staff clearly has a role for him that he's very much bought into. He seems to be gaining more of a comfort level as the season moves on, and could be in line for a much stronger finish if he doesn't hit the proverbial rookie wall.”

The comment above is the most telling trait that bodes well for Ferguson. In a professional organization, Ferguson demonstrated the ability to embrace coaching and adopt a role and ultimately become an integral part of a team in just four short months. While talent and skill are ultimately the best predictors of NBA success, a player’s ability to matriculate within an NBA program is what propels talented players into NBA stars.

Ferguson is my bet to transcend his prospects as a mid-to-late first round prospect to blossom into an elite NBA talent.

If NBA personnel share my vision, Ferguson will go a lot higher in the draft than where he is currently projected.