Did the Chicago Bulls Really Lose the Jimmy Butler Trade? Recent History Suggests Otherwise

“Malpractice!”

That’s how the Bill Simmons podcast’s regular contributor Joe House described the trade. Simmons, himself, went on to apologize to Bulls fans, ESPN’s Amin El Hassan said the Bulls got fleeced. ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz, a guy who has graded every nearly every NBA trade since 2008 gave the Bulls an F.

I’m here to tell you that the Bulls actually did well for themselves in the trade and I think the trade will ultimately turn out to be an even swap.

Here’s the case for the Bulls! (Side note, I am a devout Chicago Bulls fan. While some would say that makes me biased, I believe that my fandom allows me perspective to look at the other side of a trade that has been roundly determined to be a fleecing on the behalf of Minnesota).

NBA Experts Regularly Get Trade Grades Wrong

“This bold move is just what the doctor ordered for the Lakers.” This is not a quote referring to a Lakers' future signing of Paul George. The above quote is how the Bleacher Report described the 2012 Steve Nash trade to the Lakers.

The Bleacher Report went on note that the trade is, “…going to make the Lakers the favorites in the west alongside, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs” while granting the Lakers an A- for the deal.

The Suns received two first round picks (the 2015 pick becoming Devin Booker) and two second round picks for the then 38 year old Nash. Nash, who signed a three year 28 million dollar pact that summer with the Lakers, only played 65 games in purple and gold.

Need more?

“The addition of Garnett and Pierce to the trio of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Brook Lopez would appear to give the Nets one of the most formidable rosters in the NBA under rookie coach Jason Kidd.”

That was ESPN at time when LeBron, Wade, and Bosh just won the chip!

In grading the same trade, SI.com gave Brooklyn a B+ and Boston a B. Let me reiterate, Sports Illustrated’s initial inclination was that Brooklyn won the trade that sent Paul Pierce and Keven Garnett to Boston for three first round picks!

In the video below, a dejected Bill Simmons, a die heart Celtics fan, said, “[Boston] got 35 cents on the dollar… I don’t like the trade [for Boston].”

Recent History When Trading a Top 15 Player

The Nash and Pierce & KG deals were so disastrous that teams began to rethink the prospects of trading draft assets.

Let’s take a look at what the past three top-15 NBA players traded netted in return (prior to Jimmy Butler):

Player	Return
James Harden	Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin’s Expiring Contract, a Protected 2013 1st Round Pick (from Toronto), a Protected 2013 1st Round Pick (from Dallas), and a 2013 2nd Round Pick (from Charlotte)
Kevin Love	Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett
DeMarcus Cousins	Protected 2017 1st Round Pick, Buddy Hield, and Tyreke Evans' Expiring Contract

Three top-15 players (between the ages of 22-26) only netted three first round picks, four first year players under rookie contracts, and two expiring contracts.

Sometime between the Nash trade and the Cousins trade, NBA personnel executives went from placing little value on draft picks (giving up 5 first round picks and two second round picks for aging stars) to hording drafts (only including four first round picks for top-15 players under the age of 26).

The market for receiving draft and player compensation was simply not available for Jimmy Butler.

The Assets Received by the Bulls

Looking at the trades for Harden, Love, and Cousins, their hauls, on average, netted 1.333 first round picks, 1.333 young players, .333 2^nd Round Picks, and .666 expiring contracts.

Considering the above pure assets netted for Harden, Love and Cousins, the two young players and the #7 pick (a higher pick than any pick conferred in the Harden, Love and Cousins deals) the Bulls received is in line with the assets received for a top-15 player. This is especially true considering teams trading on draft day have no incentive to move expiring contracts as the season literally ends less than two weeks after the draft.

Furthermore, the assets the Bulls received are better than pundits gave them credit for.

Zach LaVine

What if the Bulls would have received Andrew Wiggins in the trade? I’m sure the response to the trade would been perceived better for the Bulls.

If if was a fifth…, I get it. However, the stats proclaim the Bulls got the better player in LaVine. For his career, LaVine, is a better shooter, facilitator, and the guy with the lower turnover rate. Moreover, LaVine had a higher Value over Replacement Player in 2017 (0.8 to -0.6) and for their careers (-0.1 to -0.8) over Wiggins.

But Zach LaVine is coming off an ACL tear!!!! We've seen several players of LaVine's athletic profile tear their ACL at a young age and show no drop off on speed and athleticism. Jamal Crawford and Iman Shumpert come to mind. I get that the haze of Derrick Rose hangs over LaVine in Chicago but remember, Rose had two separate meniscus injuries following his ACL tear. 

This was a fully healthy Derrick Rose immediately after his ACL tear.

Even if LaVine peaks at last year’s production, the Bulls received a player that scored 18.9 points per game, a 39% three point shooter, a play-maker in pick and roll, and a an elite finisher (LaVine’s .723 dunks per games was second among all NBA shooting guards).  

Kris Dunn

There’s no way to sugar coat it, Kris Dunn stunk last year. However, his 2017 play should not be a death sentence.

If we rewind back to the 2016 draft, pundits were shocked when Jaylen Brown went #3 ahead of Dunn. Moreover, there’s precedent for big point guards struggling in their first year.  At 6’4 210 and a top five pick in the NBA draft, Kris Dunn comps closest to Chauncey Billups and Deron Williams.

Billups’ rookie year VORP was .01, Williams’ rookie year VORP was -0.1, Dunn registered -0.1. Billups’ VORP would go on to peak at 5.2 while Williams’ peaked at 3.9. Billups and Williams, combined, wen on to play in 8 all-star games. With that said, there is precedent for Dunn to struggle initially and live up to his draft status.

2016-17 wasn’t all bad for Dunn, he was a plus defender (1.5 Defensive Box Plus/Minus) and showed major defensive versatility, leveraging his speed and 210 pound fame to guard both guard positions and switch on forwards in pick and roll post-ups.

On his defensive merit alone, Dunn projects to be a starting NBA point guard with an All-Star ceiling.

Lauri Markkanen

The draft coverage of Markkanen was flat out disrespectful.  Jalen Rose comped Markkanen to Channing Frye and Ryan Anderson. Markkanen is a better shooter, has far superior mobility, and has a better handle than both Frye and Anderson. While I like Jalen, he obviously only took a cursory look at Markkanen’s game. I agree that he will not be able to rebound in traffic in the NBA next year, but the video below Markkanen shows, at 7’0 with a multitude of NBA skills, he projects closer to Nikola Jokic or Kristaps Porzingis than Frye or Anderson.

Markkanen can drive very well with either hand, has a text-book jump shot that is not affected by length, is adept at set and pull-up jumpers, and can leap and finish in space. UCLA ran wing extended, off-ball screens (sets we’re accustomed to seeing for the likes of Klay Thompson and Kyle Korver) for their seven foot center! Projecting him to Frye and Anderson is a terminable offense. 

The NBA is a scorers league and, outside of Fultz, Markkanen has the most developed and versatile offensive skill-set of any rookie in the 2017 draft. Markkanen will finish 1^st team all-rookie and be Fultz’ only competition for Rookie of the Year.

2018 NBA Draft Improvement Proxy

One thing that NBA fans fail to grasp is the draft improvement proxy teams receive when rebuilding. Draft proxy is the draft position improvement a team receives by committing to a full rebuild after a trade of their best player. For instance, in Kevin Love’s last season with the Minnesota Timberwolves, they finished with a 40-42 record and received the 13^th pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.

By trading Love, the rebuilding Timberwolves finished 16-66 and got the #1 pick in the NBA draft (and selected Karl-Anthony Towns). The Sacramento Kings, if not for the pick swap with Philadelphia would have selected #3 in the 2017 NBA Draft.

If you want to blame OKC for one thing they blew in the Harden trade, it was accepting protections on the picks they received in the Harden trade. Having a team centered on Durant and Westbrook prevented them from receiving any draft improvement proxy.

By trading Jimmy Butler, and the completing the anticipated transactions of eventually buying out D-Wade (in the summer or before the February trade deadline) and declining Rajon Rondo’s team option for 2017-18, the Bulls will be a 20-25 win team (worse if they don't re-sign Mirotic).

The Bulls received a 21 year-old 20 point per game scorer, a 23 year old starting point guard who can defend two both guards spots, a 20 year old stretch big with Rookie of the Year potential, and placed themselves in position to draft in the top five of the 2018 NBA draft.

That is the best haul of any of the past previous top-15 players traded in the past five years.

The NBA experts will eat crow!