Jay-Z’s 4:44 is Michael Jordan in a Wizards Uniform

That may be a bit disrespectful to Jordan. See, at least Wizards Jordan had a throwback game where he dropped 51 on Charlotte.

The true greats are cursed in that their expressions of art are only truly measured against their previous triumphs.  Jay-Z is really only judged against his discography of culture-shifting albums.

The task of competing against yourself carries the weight of Atlas. So much so, that the greats reach a point they say, “Fuck your expectations, I’m just doing me!”

4:44 is Jay-Z’s fuck it moment.  4:44 is Jay-Z at a crossroads in his life (similar to the Black Album where he was mentally preparing for a life beyond Rocafella records); he's graduated from Hip-Hop but a pre-schooler in billionaire circles. 

Often, the embrace of vulnerability is the catalyst that truly allows the greats to transcend their expectations.

Jay-z’s musical journey, post-Rocafella, has been filled with similar obstacles. Aside from American Gangster (Biggie’s old beats and a built-in theme provided by the movie) and Watch the Throne (All production by Ye and half the flows from Yeezy), Jay-z has not had a good album! In comparison to his discography, Kingdom Come, Blueprint 3 and Magna Carta Holy grail are all boo-boo.

Post Black Album Jay-z is defined by his achievements in business and his proximity to the infallible Beyoncé (the latter nearly compromised by the infidelity exposed in Beyoncé’s stirring Lemonade).

4:44 is Jay-Z’s most personal album. He is transparent. He has evolved as a Black man. Unlike, his previous post-Rocafella attempts, 4:44 has some feeling! It has some soul. More than anything, it is the most vulnerable we've seen Jay-Z.

Jay-Z is bigger than Hip-Hop so grading his albums against the landscape of contemporary Hip Hop feels peculiar, but in the words of Kung Fu Kenny, “But this is Hip-Hop…niggas should know what time it is.”

Track by Track

1.       Kill Jay-Z- “You can’t heel what you never reveal,” raps an introspective Jay-Z. A poignant line from a track that sets the tone for this album. Jay-Z is about to give us transparency. However, a transparent man is a man revealing his flaws. This track is dope, yet flawed. The beat is thematic but a tough track to ride a groove on. Jay gives some decent bars and punchlines but the flow and beat never finds a balance.

2.       The Story of O.J. - What a difference time makes! The guy playing monopoly with real money at the end of the Dead Presidents video and the guy who was pouring campaign on women & throwing cash at models in the Big Pimpin video is now telling rappers to stop throwing money at strippers and stop flashing cash on Instagram! I’d say Jay is a hypocrite if he didn’t discuss his own oversights in this track. The line about DUMBO is real. All in all, this track is fire. Jay’s flow was a bit syncopated but he’s giving up game on this track. I fucks wit it!

3.       Smile ft. Gloria Carter- “Mama had four kids but she’s a lesbian, had to pretend so long, she’s a thespian.” I very moving line that hit home as my aunt recently embraced her true self. Gloria Carter came through with a stirring poem to end the track too. All in all, I must say, this track, from beat to hook, sounded a bit Drake-ish. While Drake gives a conversational flow that on tracks as such, Hov has bars! He let them rip on this one. No I.D. didn’t do too much on this track and there’s dignity in simplicity. This track goes hard.

4.       Caught Their Eyes ft. Frank Ocean- Nah! The beat is fine. The flow is not. This is a throwaway!

5.       4:44- Jay-Z bears all on this track but it really doesn’t resonate. The beat doesn’t fit the content that was to come. Jay-z aint rapping, he’s rambling. This track lacks the eloquence expected considering this is his acknowledgement of the dirt revealed in Lemonade. This was the track everyone came to hear and it is underwhelming. This track isn’t for us, it’s for Beyoncé. He should have sent this to her instead on putting it on the album. I hate to critique something so personal but I doubt if I ever listen to this track again. Wacksauce!

6.       Family Feud ft. Beyoncé-

Int. – Studio- Late Evening

Jay-Z and No ID emphatically bop their heads in approval of the track they have just completed.

An unimpressed Beyoncé stands in the background, confused as what the duo are so hopeful about.

She shakes her head in disgust.

Her disapproval overcomes her body and she sprints towards the booth, kicking its door open and positioning herself in front of the microphone.

For minutes, she belts out harmonious notes and playful ad libs.

Beyoncé removes the head phones masking her angelic ears. She stares authoritatively at Jay-Z and No I.D.

Beyoncé

Mix that shit… My apology album ain’t gone be a flop.

Beyoncé slowly struts out the booth. As she exits the studio, her eyes never meet those of Jay-Z and No I.D.

7.       Bam ft. Damian Marley- No I.D. did his thing on the track. Damian Marley blessed the hook. This thing was ready for takeoff. This should have been the track to blow up the album. Hov just didn’t come with it. He had some good punchlines, “Before A&R’s we had A-R’s” but the flow didn’t match the canvas given to him. This track was ripe for a feature from a younger artist (Cole?) but they would have just shined on Hov. All-in-all, this track has some bop to it. If any track on this album gets major play, it’ll be this. Too bad, Jay didn’t flex.

8.       Moonlight-This track encapsulates similar struggles prevalent throughout the album. Dope beat, subpar flows. Like previous tracks, Hov needed a feature to make this track compelling. Imagine Rihanna on the hook and Kendrick with a verse. This track is cool, but it’s just here.

9.       Marcy Me ft. The Dream- Dope beat. I listened five times before reviewing and I simply not compelled by one line Jay delivered on this track. At this point, Jay is just wasting No I.D.’s beats. Maybe you have to be from or in Brooklyn to appreciate this track. I think it’s doo-doo.

10.   Legacy- It aint bad, it aint good. It’s just here.

Favorite Track: The Story of O.J.

Worsts Track: Caught Their Eyes

Production

First and foremost, shout out to Dion Wilson, aka No I.D.! Chi-town in this bitch!

Now that I’m done repping for my city, I have to note, No I.D. is Jay-Z’s Kyrie Irving.

Like Kyrie, No. I.D. is an amazing yet limited talent. Kyrie Irving is an offensive juggernaut but lacks the two-way game necessary to make him an all-time great.

No I.D. is a soul-beat savant! However, and what separates Kanye from his southside brethren, No I’D.’s beats often lack the bop needed to propel a soulful track to a cross-over hit.

4:44’s production is good but this is ride-to-work music.

I can’t see any of these tracks being the background for a jumping BBQ, an ill pre-game, or getting people live at a lounge.

Grade: B-

Flows

Jay-Z has his moments; the fundamentals are the last thing to go. But his flow is just that, fundamental.

More concerning than the flow, is the creativity in delivering his punchlines.

Bars like, “You almost went Eric Benet… let the baddest girl in the world get away. I’on even know what else to say, Nigga never go Eric Benet. I’on even know what you would’ve done, in future other niggas playing football with your son” got a head nod and approving eyebrow raise. The punchline was a clever subliminal aimed at Future.  

However, 4:44 does not deliver on the wordsmanship of his previous bars like, “Now that’s Spanish chick, French chick, Indian and Black. That’s fried chicken… curry chicken… Damn, I’m getting fat! Arroz con pollo, french fries and crepe… an appetite for destruction but I scrape the plate.”

Nevertheless, fundamental flows from one of the greatest ever, while underwhelming, are still sufficient.

Grade: C-

Overall

Jay-z is no longer a rapper, he’s mogul who raps.

Jay-Z the rapper produced tracks and albums that were full of assurance. I believed his heartfelt tracks like “Song Cry.” Tracks like 4:44 play like a man on his last strike with his lady.

The braggadocio in tracks like “U Don’t Know” felt like a man certain the world was in his hands.  Moonlight plays like a successful man who’s navigating uncertain future success.

The man who proclaimed himself “the best rapper alive” is gone forever. 4:44 is the soundtrack of a man still in his infancy in conquering the world of billionaire-business.

Until Jay-Z becomes the world’s wealthiest man and makes an album boasting about it, I think I’m done with Jay-Z albums.

Musically, he gave us a great 20 year run but if this is indicative of what he has left in the tank then its time to put the mic down.

Album Grade: C-

The Sack of King's Landing: A Story of Kingslayer Kristaps, Carmelo Lannister, and the Mad Zen

It’s funny how fiction parallels real life.

During Robert’s Rebellion, Tywin Lannister and his mighty army stood outside of the gates of King's Landing. He proclaimed loyalty to the Mad King Aerys and requested entrance into the city. Upon entering the city, Tywin began sacking the city in betrayal with the aim of facilitating the overthrow of the Mad King.

Carmelo Anthony sort of tried the same thing with Phil Jackson. Despite Phil Jackson’s (the Mad Zen) undercutting and public criticism of Lord Carmelo, he said all the right things to endear himself to New York fans and, and thus, painted Phil the villain.

Carmelo agreeing to discuss a buy-out was, in essence, Phil opening the gates.

While Phil was skeptical of Carmelo, what Phil hadn’t anticipated was the Kingslayer standing close to him. Phil Jackson putting Kristaps Porzingis in the trade market is the equivalent of Mad King Aerys threatening to burn all of Kings Landing with wildfire. You simply cannot even entertain the thought of trading a 7’3, three point shooting, stretch-four. The thought is sheer lunacy.

So while Carmelo was trying to overthrow the Mad Zen internally, Porzingis said fuck this shit, this dude has to go! Times have changed since Phil was big shit in the NBA. Phil Jackson was accustomed to great players showing him unquestioned fealty. Jordan, Pippen, Shaq and Kobe all praise him.

The new era of NBA players could care less about his eleven rings. LeBron and his posse being the ringleaders. So when Phil crossed Kristaps Porzingis, he got a rude awakening as to what party truly wields power in the NBA.

Make no mistake about it, Porzingis, not Carmelo, has Phil’s blood on sword! The Knicks as an organization have no love for Carmelo and would have preferred he waive his no trade clause in order to move him out of New York. Phil’s job was safe as long as Porzingis remained the focal point of the Knicks.

If Porzingis wanted Phil to stay, Phil would still have his job. You don’t pay 24 million dollars to fire someone unless there is a greater risk to your organization. That risk in the alienation of Porzingis.

The moment the Phil explored a future without Porzingis, he had to go!

Kingslayer Kristaps, sword bloodied, now sits on the Iron Throne awaiting the next General Manager to appear and claim himself king.

As we learned with Jamie Lannister, they slaying of the King was not an act of cowardice but an honorable act that saved the city from burning.

What Next for the Knicks

Hire Big Name President of Basketball Operations

Rumors are already circulating that the Knicks are interested in Toronto’s Masai Ujiri. Former Cavaliers general manager David Griffin’s name will surely come up in the near future.

But these are the Knicks and many NBA executives want no part of reporting to MSG Chairman James Dolan. If the Knicks get shunned externally, expect to hear the like of Allen Houston and, ahem… Isaiah Thomas to be in consideration for the role.

I personally like Ujiri for the role. Ujiri, a basketball without border alum, is as plugged in with international talent as any NBA executive in the league. The Knicks best three assets (Porzingis, Hernangomez, and Ntilikina) are all international prospect so the assumption here is that Ujiri should have a unique insight to form a team around the trio.

Hire New Coaching Staff

With Phil gone, the nepotism should cease so we should see Jeff Hornacek and Kurt ushered out of New York immediately. Hopefully, they won’t meet the same faiths as Rhaenys Targaryen and Elia Martell.

This is New York City, so the next coach will have to have some cache with his name. Mark Jackson or Jeff Van Gundy are logical choices.

Mark Jackson, New York native and the franchises best point guard, was given a raw deal in Golden State. It is absolutely criminal that he hasn’t had an opportunity in the NBA these past three years. New York would welcome their native son with open arms.

Jeff Van Gundy is also a bug name. Van Gundy has quietly attempted to get back into coaching the past couple years. He’s interviewed for jobs in New Orleans and Houston but was not selected. A return to New York was never in the cards as Jackson and Van Gundy absolutely detest each other from their Bulls-Knicks rivalry days in the 90’s.

Sign a Big-Name Free Agent

With the trade of Chris Paul to the Houston Rockets, Blake Griffin is almost assured to sign with a different franchise. The Knicks will face stiff competition from Boston and Miami so they have to offer everything to Blake. If that includes a full length max deal, with an opt out, and a no trade clause, the Knicks have to do it.

The Knicks need a free agency win to remind players across the league that New York City is still an appetizing destination.  I would even go as far as to as to offer Hernangomez in a cap clearing deal if a team will take Noah’s contract with it.

If the Knicks make some smart decisions, a lot of the damage Phil inflicted over the past three years could be reversed this summer. If not, they can better prepare for enemies to the east… enemies to the west… enemies to the south… enemies to the west!

Did the Chicago Bulls Really Lose the Jimmy Butler Trade? Recent History Suggests Otherwise

“Malpractice!”

That’s how the Bill Simmons podcast’s regular contributor Joe House described the trade. Simmons, himself, went on to apologize to Bulls fans, ESPN’s Amin El Hassan said the Bulls got fleeced. ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz, a guy who has graded every nearly every NBA trade since 2008 gave the Bulls an F.

I’m here to tell you that the Bulls actually did well for themselves in the trade and I think the trade will ultimately turn out to be an even swap.

Here’s the case for the Bulls! (Side note, I am a devout Chicago Bulls fan. While some would say that makes me biased, I believe that my fandom allows me perspective to look at the other side of a trade that has been roundly determined to be a fleecing on the behalf of Minnesota).

NBA Experts Regularly Get Trade Grades Wrong

“This bold move is just what the doctor ordered for the Lakers.” This is not a quote referring to a Lakers' future signing of Paul George. The above quote is how the Bleacher Report described the 2012 Steve Nash trade to the Lakers.

The Bleacher Report went on note that the trade is, “…going to make the Lakers the favorites in the west alongside, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs” while granting the Lakers an A- for the deal.

The Suns received two first round picks (the 2015 pick becoming Devin Booker) and two second round picks for the then 38 year old Nash. Nash, who signed a three year 28 million dollar pact that summer with the Lakers, only played 65 games in purple and gold.

Need more?

“The addition of Garnett and Pierce to the trio of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Brook Lopez would appear to give the Nets one of the most formidable rosters in the NBA under rookie coach Jason Kidd.”

That was ESPN at time when LeBron, Wade, and Bosh just won the chip!

In grading the same trade, SI.com gave Brooklyn a B+ and Boston a B. Let me reiterate, Sports Illustrated’s initial inclination was that Brooklyn won the trade that sent Paul Pierce and Keven Garnett to Boston for three first round picks!

In the video below, a dejected Bill Simmons, a die heart Celtics fan, said, “[Boston] got 35 cents on the dollar… I don’t like the trade [for Boston].”

Recent History When Trading a Top 15 Player

The Nash and Pierce & KG deals were so disastrous that teams began to rethink the prospects of trading draft assets.

Let’s take a look at what the past three top-15 NBA players traded netted in return (prior to Jimmy Butler):

Player	Return
James Harden	Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin’s Expiring Contract, a Protected 2013 1st Round Pick (from Toronto), a Protected 2013 1st Round Pick (from Dallas), and a 2013 2nd Round Pick (from Charlotte)
Kevin Love	Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett
DeMarcus Cousins	Protected 2017 1st Round Pick, Buddy Hield, and Tyreke Evans' Expiring Contract

Three top-15 players (between the ages of 22-26) only netted three first round picks, four first year players under rookie contracts, and two expiring contracts.

Sometime between the Nash trade and the Cousins trade, NBA personnel executives went from placing little value on draft picks (giving up 5 first round picks and two second round picks for aging stars) to hording drafts (only including four first round picks for top-15 players under the age of 26).

The market for receiving draft and player compensation was simply not available for Jimmy Butler.

The Assets Received by the Bulls

Looking at the trades for Harden, Love, and Cousins, their hauls, on average, netted 1.333 first round picks, 1.333 young players, .333 2^nd Round Picks, and .666 expiring contracts.

Considering the above pure assets netted for Harden, Love and Cousins, the two young players and the #7 pick (a higher pick than any pick conferred in the Harden, Love and Cousins deals) the Bulls received is in line with the assets received for a top-15 player. This is especially true considering teams trading on draft day have no incentive to move expiring contracts as the season literally ends less than two weeks after the draft.

Furthermore, the assets the Bulls received are better than pundits gave them credit for.

Zach LaVine

What if the Bulls would have received Andrew Wiggins in the trade? I’m sure the response to the trade would been perceived better for the Bulls.

If if was a fifth…, I get it. However, the stats proclaim the Bulls got the better player in LaVine. For his career, LaVine, is a better shooter, facilitator, and the guy with the lower turnover rate. Moreover, LaVine had a higher Value over Replacement Player in 2017 (0.8 to -0.6) and for their careers (-0.1 to -0.8) over Wiggins.

But Zach LaVine is coming off an ACL tear!!!! We've seen several players of LaVine's athletic profile tear their ACL at a young age and show no drop off on speed and athleticism. Jamal Crawford and Iman Shumpert come to mind. I get that the haze of Derrick Rose hangs over LaVine in Chicago but remember, Rose had two separate meniscus injuries following his ACL tear. 

This was a fully healthy Derrick Rose immediately after his ACL tear.

Even if LaVine peaks at last year’s production, the Bulls received a player that scored 18.9 points per game, a 39% three point shooter, a play-maker in pick and roll, and a an elite finisher (LaVine’s .723 dunks per games was second among all NBA shooting guards).  

Kris Dunn

There’s no way to sugar coat it, Kris Dunn stunk last year. However, his 2017 play should not be a death sentence.

If we rewind back to the 2016 draft, pundits were shocked when Jaylen Brown went #3 ahead of Dunn. Moreover, there’s precedent for big point guards struggling in their first year.  At 6’4 210 and a top five pick in the NBA draft, Kris Dunn comps closest to Chauncey Billups and Deron Williams.

Billups’ rookie year VORP was .01, Williams’ rookie year VORP was -0.1, Dunn registered -0.1. Billups’ VORP would go on to peak at 5.2 while Williams’ peaked at 3.9. Billups and Williams, combined, wen on to play in 8 all-star games. With that said, there is precedent for Dunn to struggle initially and live up to his draft status.

2016-17 wasn’t all bad for Dunn, he was a plus defender (1.5 Defensive Box Plus/Minus) and showed major defensive versatility, leveraging his speed and 210 pound fame to guard both guard positions and switch on forwards in pick and roll post-ups.

On his defensive merit alone, Dunn projects to be a starting NBA point guard with an All-Star ceiling.

Lauri Markkanen

The draft coverage of Markkanen was flat out disrespectful.  Jalen Rose comped Markkanen to Channing Frye and Ryan Anderson. Markkanen is a better shooter, has far superior mobility, and has a better handle than both Frye and Anderson. While I like Jalen, he obviously only took a cursory look at Markkanen’s game. I agree that he will not be able to rebound in traffic in the NBA next year, but the video below Markkanen shows, at 7’0 with a multitude of NBA skills, he projects closer to Nikola Jokic or Kristaps Porzingis than Frye or Anderson.

Markkanen can drive very well with either hand, has a text-book jump shot that is not affected by length, is adept at set and pull-up jumpers, and can leap and finish in space. UCLA ran wing extended, off-ball screens (sets we’re accustomed to seeing for the likes of Klay Thompson and Kyle Korver) for their seven foot center! Projecting him to Frye and Anderson is a terminable offense. 

The NBA is a scorers league and, outside of Fultz, Markkanen has the most developed and versatile offensive skill-set of any rookie in the 2017 draft. Markkanen will finish 1^st team all-rookie and be Fultz’ only competition for Rookie of the Year.

2018 NBA Draft Improvement Proxy

One thing that NBA fans fail to grasp is the draft improvement proxy teams receive when rebuilding. Draft proxy is the draft position improvement a team receives by committing to a full rebuild after a trade of their best player. For instance, in Kevin Love’s last season with the Minnesota Timberwolves, they finished with a 40-42 record and received the 13^th pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.

By trading Love, the rebuilding Timberwolves finished 16-66 and got the #1 pick in the NBA draft (and selected Karl-Anthony Towns). The Sacramento Kings, if not for the pick swap with Philadelphia would have selected #3 in the 2017 NBA Draft.

If you want to blame OKC for one thing they blew in the Harden trade, it was accepting protections on the picks they received in the Harden trade. Having a team centered on Durant and Westbrook prevented them from receiving any draft improvement proxy.

By trading Jimmy Butler, and the completing the anticipated transactions of eventually buying out D-Wade (in the summer or before the February trade deadline) and declining Rajon Rondo’s team option for 2017-18, the Bulls will be a 20-25 win team (worse if they don't re-sign Mirotic).

The Bulls received a 21 year-old 20 point per game scorer, a 23 year old starting point guard who can defend two both guards spots, a 20 year old stretch big with Rookie of the Year potential, and placed themselves in position to draft in the top five of the 2018 NBA draft.

That is the best haul of any of the past previous top-15 players traded in the past five years.

The NBA experts will eat crow!

Terrance Ferguson and an Examination of Elite NBA Draft Talent Selected Outside of the Lottery

This past Monday, the Boston Celtics traded the number one pick in the 2017 NBA draft to the Philadelphia 76ers for the number 3 pick and a future pick (a protected 2018 pick from the Los Angeles Lakers or an unprotected 2019 from the Sacramento Kings).

My first thought was, “Ooooh Danny, what is you doing baby?” Then I thought to rush over to TheRinger.com to get the thoughts of my favorite Boston Celtics fan and sports personality Bill Simmons.

On the Ringer NBA Podcast, Simmons, TheRinger.com staff writer Kevin O’Connor, and TheRinger.com Executive Editor Chris Ryan were doing their best Trump media surrogate impersonation trying to make sense of why Danny Ainge would do some silly shit like trading the number one pick (i.e. Markelle Fultz) for lessor draft assets.

In summary, Simmons, O’Connor, and Ryan surmised that Danny Ainge views the talent in the 2017 NBA draft as so similar at the top of the draft, that a team can get the draft’s best player in the later lottery.  Moreover, they advocated if Ainge could get the best player at number three and add an additioanal asset, then it is a smart personnel decision. They highlighted the 1998 and 1999 drafts as examples of when players like Dirk Nowitski, Paul Pierce, Lamar Odom, and Shawn Marion had better (or more impactful) careers than the players drafted first (Michael Oluwokandi and Elton Brand) in those drafts.

Upon hearing this, I immediately thought this was an illogical attempt from Simmons, O’Connor, and Ryan to cape for Simmons’ homie Danny Ainge. Today, NBA franchises are much smarter than they were in 1998 and 1999 and teams pour far more resources into the draft than they did in 1998 & 1999.

However, the thought of identifying elite NBA draft talent is an interesting exploration. I’ve always been perplexed with how, almost annually, elite NBA talent falls outside of the lottery picks.  The following is an examination of elite talent (and other lottery level talent) that fell outside of the lottery and a nomination of the player in the 2017 draft that fits this profile.

Elite Talent Selected Outside of the Lottery Since 2000

In the new millennium, All-NBA and All-Star level talent regularly fell out of the lottery in the NBA draft. Michael Redd, Zach Randolph, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, Deandre Jordan, Goran Dragic, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Draymond Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rudy Gobert, and Nikola Jokic (Jokic has yet to make an All-NBA team or All-Star team but NBA consensus is that he is sure to do so if he stays healthy) are all examples.

Since 2012, there frequency of these occurrences has slowed some. I am of the opinion that NBA franchises, then suffering from financial strain and personnel mismanagement that led to the 2011 NBA lock-out, saw that emerging teams with elite level young talent on cheap rookie-scale contracts (Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, etc.), placed a greater emphasis on identifying these players and their cheap services.

The 2011 and 2012 NBA Draft

Let’s look at the 2011 and 2012 NBA drafts. In 2011, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Isaiah Thomas (drafted 15, 30, and 60 respectively) were players drafted outside of the lottery that went on to become All-Star and All-NBA players. In 2012 (after the NBA lock-out), the only player in the draft selected outside of the lottery that went on to become an All-NBA/All-Star caliber player was Draymond Green.

Skeptics of this theory would simply propose that the 2011 NBA simply had better talent. But if we look back to reports, 2011 was considered a down draft while 2012 was considered a great draft, flush with talent. Moreover, if 2012 had lessor talent, a player of Draymond Green’s skill-set should have been easier to identify among his peers with supposed lessor talent.

Let’s look at the primary characteristics valued by NBA evaluators of the elite-talent players in the 2011 and 2012 draft that fell outside of the lottery.

Player	Valuable NBA Attributes
Kawhi Leonard	Athleticism, Strength, Wingspan, Large Hands, Positional Versatility, Lateral Movement
Jimmy Butler	Athleticism, Strength, Wingspan, Large Hands, Positional Versatility, Lateral Movement
Isaiah Thomas	Quickness, Shooting
Draymond Green	Wingspan, Positional Versatility

Let’s look at the consensus characteristics that caused these players to drop outside of the lottery.

Player	Deficiencies
Kawhi Leonard	Shooting, Play-Making Ability
Jimmy Butler	Shooting, Play-Making Ability
Isaiah Thomas	Undersized
Draymond Green	Shooting, Undersized

Examining the two drafts evidences that NBA personnel executives, in a manner of 12 months, were able to quickly recognized attributes that indicated elite NBA talent (size notwithstanding).

Elite Talent Selected Outside of the Lottery since 2013-2016

While the NBA has been able to clean-up the overall trend of allowing elite talent to fall outside of the lottery, the caveat here is that since 2013 three players- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rudy Gobert, and Nikola Jokic- have all gone on to become elite NBA talents (again Jokic has yet to make an All-NBA or All-Star team but league-wide consensus is the he is an elite NBA player). The commonality among these players is that they all came from international leagues: Antetokounmpo from the Greek A2 league; Gobert from Cholet Basket of the French League; and Jokic of the Adriatic League.

NBA executives recognized this trend from 2013 and 2014 and quickly placed an increased emphasis on preventing elite international talent from falling outside of the draft. When comparing the 2013 and 2014 NBA draft to the 2014 and 2015 NBA draft, in 2013 and 2014, Dante Exum and Dario Saric (both selected in 2014) were the only international players selected in the lottery of the two drafts. In 2015 and 2016, six international players were selected in the lottery of the tow drafts.

However, potentially elite still made their way to fall through the cracks (I’d like to note here that the players below have less than two years of NBA experience and the analysis below is based off of an examination redrafts of the 2015 and 2016 NBA drafts from popular sports websites where players have outperformed their pick selection).

Willy Hernangomez (drafted 35^th in 2015), Ivica Zubac (drafted 32^nd in 2016), 2016-17 rookie of the year favorite Malcolm Brogdon (drafted 36^th in 2016), and Paul Zipser are all players that fell through the cracks. Hernangomez, Zubac, and Zipser seemingly fell through the cracks due to the still present lack of resources NBA franchises place on international scouting.

While I am not suggesting that Brogdon is similar to the caliber prospect of Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, or Draymond Green, Brogdon has elite NBA attributes (defense, strength, ball-handling) who similar to Leonard, Butler, and Green, fell in the draft due to their inability to shoot at a high level coming out of college.

Similarities to Fallen Draft Talent 2011-2012

In my 30 for 30 voice, what if told you that there was an NBA prospect, currently not projected to be taken in the lottery, that has the attributes of the elite talent that has fallen out of the lottery since 2011?

There is! His name is Terrance Ferguson.

Terrance Ferguson is a 6’7 guard/forward from Dallas, Texas. Ferguson made the unconventional decision to bypass college and play professionally in Australia for the Adelaide 36ers of the Australian Basketball League. 

Like Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, and Draymond Green, Ferguson has attributes consistent of the elites athletes that fell out of the lottery in the past. He also has similar deficiencies that are currently causing him to be overlooked by teams drafting in the lottery.

Ferguson is similar to Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler in that he is an elite NBA attributes. At 6’7 he has ideal height for NBA wings. With 10 inch wide hands, he was one of only two wings players to have hands 10 inches or longer at the NBA draft combine. His 38 inch vertical leap was 6^th highest of any wing at the NBA draft combine (Kawhi Leonard had a 32 inch vertical and Jimmy Butler had a 39 inch vertical).

Ferguson’s shot 31.3% from the longer FIBA three point line (Butler shot 38.3%, Leonard shot 25% from the shorter college3 point line). With a 6’9 wingspan, Ferguson has adequate arm length to project in to a plus defender (Kawhi- 7’3, Butler- 6’7.5).

Similar to Draymond Green has size issues preventing him from being considered a lottery prospect. At 186 pounds, Ferguson is skinny! Kawhi Leonard weighed in at 227 pounds and Jimmy Butler weighed in at 222 pounds.

His slight of weight takes away from his positional versatility as he doesn’t have the size to guard NBA small forwards. Also, his slender frame does not project well for his ability to finish with authority at the rim.

The upside here is unlike Isaiah Thomas and Draymond Green whose height caused them to slide in the draft, NBA strength and conditioning programs can add muscle to his frame.

Ferguson is a streaky shooter but unlike Kawhi Leonard who had to reconstruct his shot, Ferguson’s mechanics are fine. He has bad balance on his three in half court offensives sets (which can be cured with weight gains) and tends to shoot the ball as he is still rising (which can be cured by repetitions in the gym).

Ferguson’s other major flaw is his ball handling going left. His dribble is a bit high and his accuracy is poor when making left-handed passes. With his large hands, a good development coach should be able to cure these ills in a couple of seasons (if not sooner).

Conversely, Ferguson has elite pedigree. Ferguson was a McDonald’s All-American and was rated as high as the 11^th rated senior in the class of 2016.

International Exchange

In my estimation, the primary rationale for Ferguson to lack of consideration as a lottery prospect is his path to the NBA. Ferguson considered Alabama and Arizona but ultimately played in Australia. In doing so, Ferguson took himself out of the sight of NBA scouts.

NBA scouts primarily depend upon consultation from international scouts and rarely make it overseas to scout prospects in person. However, international scouting has vastly improved over the past five years and NBA personnel executives are increasingly finding international scouting to be the equal of domestic scouting.

Another negative consideration in the eyes of NBA personnel executives, American players who traveled overseas to play between high school and the NBA have had mixed results (namely Emmanuel Mundiay and Bandon Jennings). 

Comparing Ferguson’s international experience to Mundiay and Jennings would be a grave misjudgment by NBA executives. Mundiay only played ten games overseas before succumbing to an injury that ended his international experiment.

Brandon Jennings played in the Italian League where player development of American players simply is not a point of emphasis. Jennings only averaged just over 17 minutes per game in Italian Series A play and only 19 minutes per game in Euroleague play.

Ferguson, on the other hand, started his internal career as bench player and ultimately carved out a role on the 36ers and earning 17 starts. Draft Express described Ferguson’s international experience as follows, “Ferguson is even getting some crunch time minutes in highly competitive games, and the coaching staff clearly has a role for him that he's very much bought into. He seems to be gaining more of a comfort level as the season moves on, and could be in line for a much stronger finish if he doesn't hit the proverbial rookie wall.”

The comment above is the most telling trait that bodes well for Ferguson. In a professional organization, Ferguson demonstrated the ability to embrace coaching and adopt a role and ultimately become an integral part of a team in just four short months. While talent and skill are ultimately the best predictors of NBA success, a player’s ability to matriculate within an NBA program is what propels talented players into NBA stars.

Ferguson is my bet to transcend his prospects as a mid-to-late first round prospect to blossom into an elite NBA talent.

If NBA personnel share my vision, Ferguson will go a lot higher in the draft than where he is currently projected.

Think Real Real Big: How the Cavs and Celtics could Catch the Golden State Warriors

It's time for Danny Ainge and GM LeBron to put their dicks on the table.

In case you missed the NBA finals, LeBron James, who statically played the best finals in the history of the NBA, was soundly defeated in five games. That same Cavaliers team destroyed the Boston Celtics in five games.

If either team thinks adding Jimmy Butler or Paul George will close the gap, then they're wrong. The Cavs would have to part with Kevin Love or Kyrie Irving to get either George or Butler. While a move of that magnitude would improve the Cavs, the Cavs would have three all-stars to the Warriors four.

Boston is even further away. In my opinion, they need three more all-star caliber players to even get a seat at the table with Golden State.

Both teams have to think bigger than Jimmy Butler or Paul George. I have the perfect trade that makes sense for both Cleveland and Boston.

Before you start crying, just know that New Orleans would also receive Bostons trove of assets including: 2017 #3 pick, the Nets 2018 unprotected 1st round pick, the Lakers or Kings pick from Philly for trading down, the 2019 Clippers protected pick, and Memphis' 2019 protected pick.

Why this Trade Works for Cleveland
Simply put, the Cavs came up short in the 2017 finals because they have three all-stars and Golden State has four. Swapping out Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert for Al Horford makes Cleveland worse defensively, but there's no sustained defense for Golden State. Thompson was horrendous against the Warriors. Horford has his rebounding deficiencies but Steph Curry got more boards that Tristan Thompson.

Adding Al Horford adds more versatility to the Cavs' offense. He can dribble hand-off, facilitate the offense from the high post, and stretch to three (all things Thompson lacks). Losing Shumpert's defense would hurt but his defense is replaceable for far less than his salary.

Most importantly, Cleveland adds a fourth all-star, more offensive flexibility, and allows the Cavs to employ the tactic that won them the championship in 2016, SIZE. A front court of James, Horford, and Love allows the Cavs to exploit the Warriors lack of size and rebounding while keeping pace with the Warriors offense.

Why this Trade Works for Boston
Boston's major flaw is their lack of front-line elite talent. Isaiah Thomas is, at best, the third best player on a championship team. He's the Celtics' best player. Adding Anthony Davis and Demarcus Cousins would give the Celtics a top five NBA talent at power forward (also the most versatile player in the league outside of LeBron James and Giannis) and the best offensive center in the league.

Adding the Brow and Boogie would also resolve their rebounding and front court shooting woes as both players stretch to the three. More importantly, the move adds elite talent while allowing Boston to enhance their cap flexibility. The deal would allow Boston to keep Bradley, Crowder, and Smart and still make significant upgrades in free agency.

It the Celtics move Bradley (which they have to do by February anyway), the Celtics could still sign Gordon Heyward this summer. Boston could also go the depth route and add the likes of a Joe Ingles and James Johnson with their remaining space and keep Bradley. Either way, the Celtics would roll out a line up with four all-stars or three all-stars supplemented by five starter quality players.

Option 1

I. Thomas	M. Smart
G. Heyward	A. Bradley
D. Cousins
A. Davis	A. Johnson
J. Crowder

Option 2

I. Thomas	T. Rozier
A. Bradley	M. Smart
D. Cousins	A. Johnson
A. Davis	J. Johnson
J. Crowder	J. Ingles

Option 1 allows the Celtics to trot out four starters that could drop 25-30 without hesitation. Option 2 would give Boston a line-up with three volume scorers and an incredible defensive starting line-up. Option 2 would also allow Brad Stevens to work his wizardy with flexible offensive and defensive players.

Why this Trade Works for New Orleans
While I think the Davis/Cousins experiment could be ultimately successful, it can't work in New Orleans. The Pelicans are a desperate franchise. They have to appease to Davis and Cousins but don't have the resources to do so. The Pelicans don't have a 2017 pick. They have dead weight contracts (hello Asik) and they would have to overpay Jrue Holiday in order to keep him.

The latter option is not preferable, considering Holiday's injury history. New Orleans simply do not have the resources to get Davis and Cousins close enough to the Warriors to keep them happy. Cousins will brood, Holiday will injure, and Davis will become annoyed.

Including Davis and Cousins now allows the Pelicans to reset. The haul from Boston would include the Jaylen Brown, 2017 #3 pick, the Lakers 2018 pick from Philly (#1 or 6-14 as that Lakers aren't making the playoffs in 2018) or the unprotected 2019 Kings pick, Brooklyn's unprotected 2018 pick, the Clippers 2019 protected pick, and the Grizzlies 2019 protected pick.

In total, that's four potential lottery picks along with two additional first round picks. This treasure trove and an accompanying rebuild would allow New Orleans to gain Jaylen Brown and six potential lottery assets over the course of two years (if you include New Orleans protected 2018 1st rounder and their 2019 pick). Clearing the decks would allow the Pelicans to let Jrue Holiday walk and clear the salaries of Davis and Cousins.

By the time of the 2019-20 season, when the cap jumps to $120 million, the Pelicans would have given their young assets valuable experience and Shumpert's salary would be off the books. Thompson's $18.6 million dollar salary would be a bargain for a starting big (only 15.5% of the cap) and the Pelicans would be looking at having $50 million to throw at free agents in 2020 (right in time for the Kyrie Irving and Kawhi Leonard free agencies).

The Big But...

After trading Chris Paul in 2011, trading Davis and Cousins would kill basketball in New Orleans!

That might not be such a bad thing!

Seattle Supersonics
Killing basketball in New Orleans may not be such a bad thing if it results in the return of the Seattle Supersonics. Basketball has always had its struggles in the Big Easy. New Orleans is one of the smallest TV markets in the league and relocating the team to Seattle would be a major boon for the league.

While Benson the 89 year old settled his financial with his heirs, adding a couple billion to his estate would go a long way to maintaining the peace.

Seattle, full of billionaire investors, could easily muster 2.5-3.5 billion to move the team to the Northwest, pay off any debts the team would owe the city of New Orleans, and build a killer new stadium. A sale would increase the value of the other 29 franchises as it would take the least valuable team in the league and make it one of the most valuable.

The NBA would also correct a grave injustice by restoring basketball in Seattle and would allow New Orleans to fully recover from Katrina before revisiting NBA basketball again.

All in all, this trade is good for the league. It would restore competitive balance to the league by creating two additional super teams to battle Golden State in the short-term and lead to an increase the value of league by nudging the Pelicans to Seattle.

Can Danny Ainge and GM LeBron make this happen.

Sports Comment Section Rhetoric, Racism, and Jason Whitlock

Jason Whitlock’s Willful Embodiment of Bigoted Sports Comment Section Rhetoric is Akin to Modern Day Uncle-Toming

During the 2016 presidential election comedian John Stewart explained Donald Trump winning the Republican primary in the following manner,

“He [Donald Trump] makes sense if you view it through the prism of talk radio and it [conservative talk radio] is 24-7 of ‘your country is being taken away from you…’ It is ‘you’re being run by a tyrant, he’s going to take away your rights, we are falling, and there are rapists and murderers at the border coming to kill you.’ If that’s what you’ve been fed and that’s what you’re buying into then Donald Trump makes more sense than anyone else out there.”

Jason Whitlock’s resurgent reemergence in the sports headlines  makes sense in the same vain that the Donald Trump presidency makes sense.

Sports Comment Section Rhetoric

In my opinion, the comment sections of sports-related websites are remarkably similar to conservative talk radio in that these comment sections are a platform for unashamed bigotry.

I don’t have the bandwidth to detail the intense levels of bigotry espoused by those commenting in sports sections whenever a minority athlete is the subject. If you are predisposed to type of torture, google Colin Kaepernick or LeBron James or Richard Sherman or any other sports related content that features a minority athlete. Read the comment section and survey the amount of coded and outright bigoted comments.

Facebook, Google, Yahoo and Plus have successful partnerships with sports sites to authenticate commenters in order to stem a lot of this bigotry by attempting to deny these bigots anonymity. Unfortunately, the level of bigotry remains so intense that the majority of sports websites hire moderators whose sole purpose is to scrub their site of bigoted comments. Furthermore, this intense bigotry has caused many sports sites to discontinue the ability to allow their readers to comment on their content.

Not surprising, the tone and tenor of these comments, if not flat out racist, are much more critical of minority athletes than white athletes (google Kevin Love, Gordon Heyward, Ryan Anderson, Kyle Korver, JJ Reddick, or Kelly Olynyk and survey the adjectives used by sports section commenters to described these guys in comparison to our earlier google search).

Racism

Jason Whitlock discusses race on a regular basis. During the past ten years, nearly every time Whitlock has discussed race I’ve found his perspective to be somewhere between being off-base to being completely illogical.

His take on race when LeBron James had “nigger” spray painted on his Los Angeles home landed on the illogical end of the spectrum. Whitlock said, “Racism is an issue in America, but it’s primarily an issue for the poor. It’s not LeBron James’ issue.”

Let’s ignore the tacit admission of self-hatred by associating a subject he acknowledges as a major problem (racism) with poverty. I’m more focused on his suggestion that you can transcend racism.

The thing about racism, is that it is a belief system! It is a belief system that members of a race possess innate characteristics that distinguishes one as either inferior or superior to another race.

The things we witnessed in the past (slavery, lynchings, Jim Crow) and the things we witness today (epithets, vandalism, murder at the hands of police) are symptoms of racism. These atrocities happen because people carry a racist belief system.

Despite the many attempts of Uncle Toms preceding Whitlock, a person’s belief that one is innately inferior or that one is innately superior is beyond the sphere of transcendence afforded by wealth or social status.

The troubling thing is Jason Whitlock knows better.

Jason Whitlock

Whatever you think of Whitlock’s opinions, he cannot be denounced as a poor journalist. He’s actually a pretty damn good journalist.

Whitlock has been a reporter or columnist for several renowned newspapers, has been published in the New York Times, and is the only sports journalist awarded the Scripps Howard National Journalism Award for Commentary.

Whitlock is keenly adept at identifying provocative topics. That’s a great ability to have in the commentary business.

The problem is, Whitlock is often tactless and makes poor career choices.

Whitlock left the ESPN platform to work for AOL Sports and made a racist and stereotypic sexual comment about Asian-American basketball player Jeremy Lin. Upon returning to ESPN, he severely mismanaged its African American focused affinity site, TheUndefeated.com, so poorly that he was fired before the site officially launched.

Combined, his tactlessness and poor career choices resulted in a spiraling career where his platforms were not aligned with his journalistic talent. After being fired from ESPN and TheUndefeated.com, Whitlock employed his keen journalistic instincts to reintroduce himself as the Donald Trump of sports commentary.

I believe Whitlock recognized that the bigoted rhetoric used by Donald Trump was eerily similar to the toxic rhetoric espoused in sports comment sections. Whitlock’s firing from ESPN occurred the same month Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign.

Whitlock understood that there is a distinct conservative resentment of ESPN as many conservatives view ESPN as being ultra-liberal. Whitlock realized that he was uniquely qualified to be the perfect messenger for conservative sports bigotry. See, if Curt Schilling says something provocative, he gets fired but, as an African American, Whitlock is bulletproof when giving his opinions on race.

Whitlock reinvented himself as the Black man who will say the things sports comment section bigots think and want to hear. Furthermore, Whitlock, a Fox Sports 1 employee, will champion the conservative cause against the liberal monster that is ESPN.

While I fully acknowledge Whitlock has been giving provocative race related commentary for many years, his previous work, while disagreeable, was often nuanced and thoughtful. His new shtick is sheer trolling.

For instance, when laying out his inspiration for TheUndefeated.com in 2013, Whitlock claimed that intersection of race and sports was under-reported and the Undefeated.com would delve deeply into race and sports. However, in 2017 Whitlock says that race is not an issue for LeBron James (and millionaire athletes by proxy).  How, in 2013, could Whitlock claim that the intersection of race and sports to be under-reported and part of the inspiration of his site but in 2017 claim that race is not under the purview of millionaire athletes? These are questions only opportunistic hypocrites can answer.

Since his firing at ESPN Whitlock fired off several tone-deaf attacks on LeBron James, Colin Kaepernick, and other black athletes and celebrities in an effort to regain his lost stature. Whitlock’s plan is working. His recent commentary, a more pronounced a gumbo of Sambo Black privilege, bigoted coded-language, and white apologist rhetoric, has him entrenched in the headlines in 2017.

Michael Eric Dyson referred to Jason Whitlock as, “a ventriloquist for white supremacy.” I hope that Whitlock willful embrace of coonery is not as beneficial for him as bigotry has been for Donald Trump.  

Either way, I feel bad for Whitlock. I feel worse for the people that raised him.