Saturday, April 4, 2015

Down with Analytics: How Advanced Statistical Metrics in Sports is Ruining the Fan Experience


The Sophisticated Fan
I had just got my tax refund and decided to take a mini-vacation to relax. I’m sitting in front of my laptop going through destinations and settled upon two options: the Sloan conference or the CIAAs (for the white readers and/or those unfamiliar with HBCUs, the CIAAs is the postseason basketball tournament held annually in Charlotte for the D-II CIAA conference whose schools consist of small black colleges. The actual basketball tournament is of no significance but the partying is epic).

I considered the merits of both. I really want to blog seriously about sports and attending the Sloan conference would have been a good investment in achieving that goal. On the other hand, I could go up to the Charlotte, party hard, get fucked up, meet a few women, and, if fortunate enough, lay down with one of them.



Then I said to myself, “why the fuck am I even considering Sloan.” There aren't any women in Boston, the conference is in February and who wants to spend a mini-vacation in 30 degree weather. Why is Sloan, and its analytics movement, a dignifyer (I’ll make up words in this blog) of a “serious” sports blogger? Why do I even want to attract the “sophisticated” sports fan?

This exercise in trip planning led me to the conclusion that sports, basketball specifically, is (I’ll make some grammatical errors in this blog) becoming too white collared. I shouldn't have to have league pass, frequent shot charts, or have to understand space & pace and defensive wins shares to “know” sports as a fan. With that said, fuck analytics and the treachery it’s imposing upon fans.

Reclaiming my Fandom
A few co-workers and I were taking a smoke break when the conversation of Kobe vs. MJ came up. To me, the conversation isn't close, its MJ all day for me (full disclosure, I was born and bred in Chicago and a huge Bulls fan). My coworkers are card carrying Kobe stans. Me, then the sophisticated, analytics-based argument maker, rattled off a bevy of stats proving MJ the better player (I used to live on basketball-reference.com). Their position didn't budge. Frustrated, I asked, “What are Kobe’s signature playoff moments?”

The only Kobe playoff moments I could remember were his airball game early in his career against the Jazz and the alley he threw to Shaq to clench the series against the Blazers. With MJ, I rattled off the 63 point game against Boston when he crossed up Bird, the shot over Ehlo to sink the Cavs, the (in my Marv Albert voice) “spectacular move” reverse against the Lakers in the 91 finals, the shrug game against the blazers, and “the shot” against the Jazz after pushing off on Byron Russell.



I somehow made the argument that since MJ had more defining playoff moments, he was an overall better basketball player than Kobe. A totally illogical argument right? But you know what, it worked! I’d been having this argument with these guys for months and the position I used to win them over was one void of data and a complete logical fallacy!

I won the argument because I framed my position in emotional context. MJ made them feel a way that Kobe could never achieve. As a fan, what sports are really all about are context, excitement and emotion.

The Day Analytics Died with Me
I was officially done with analytics as a fan on January 27th, 2015 after watching my Bulls play at the Warriors. In the game Derrick Rose scored 30 points but he went 13-33, had 1 assist, zero free-throw attempts and 11 turnovers. The game was an analytics nightmare. Rose’s performance marked only the second time in NBA history where a player missed at least 20 shots and had more than 10 turnovers. Analytics folks will also point out that the overtime shot Rose hit to win the game (a 20-ft step back jumper) is the worst shot in basketball.

As an avid Bulls fan I can say with conviction that night was the best basketball Derrick Rose ever played! Moreover, it was one of the top 10 games I’d ever seen played by a Chicago Bulls player! Analytics folks would cry blasphemy, but analytics cannot capture the context that surround games.

For instance, up to that point, the Warriors had only lost one game at home during the season. Steph Curry was ascending up the lists as one of the league’s best point guards and players. On the other hand, Derrick Rose wasn't trying to hear none of that shit. It was one of those games where a player says to himself, “That muh’fucka aint better than me and we aint losing tonight.” Derick Rose made a lot awful plays that game but in the process he intimidated everyone on the Warriors. It was beautiful to watch!



The problem with embracing advanced sports metrics is analytics tell you that you are a dumb and unsophisticated fan for appreciating Rose’s performance that night. To that I say, Bullshit!

What this Blog Will Be
This blog will focus on the context, excitement, and emotion in and around sports (mostly basketball). I’ll try to post two or three times per week. If someone gets dunked on, we’ll talk about it. I someone gets crossed-up, we’ll talk about it. If a player gets a groupie pregnant, we’ll talk about it.

 I’ll try to throw in a podcast when I can. I’ll talk shit about sports with a lot of my friends. Some of them know sports, some don’t, but they’re all pretty funny cats.


On a side note, I wound up not going to the CIAAs nor Sloan. Unfortunately, I blew a lot of my tax refund at Club Blaze on a stripper named Now’Laters! I had a good time though!


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