Now that most of the major dominoes have fallen in NBA free agency (no shade to Lebron), I’ll share my observations from the free-for-all.
Long-Term Security?
All the rage going into NBA free agency centered on how players would take short two-year deals, with an option after the first year, to get back into free agency in order to get a bigger check when new TV money kicks in.
We didn’t see any of that as pretty much every major free-agent took long term deals (Love, Butler, Jordan, Davis, etc.). On his radio show, The Right Time, ESPN’s Bomani Jones postulated that it’s hard to turn down a 60-145 million dollar check sitting in front of you. While Bomani is right about in his claim, I think the reason players took the long-term check is more nuanced than the sheer magnitude of a big payday.
I think these players smartened up and took inventory of the history of negotiations with the NBA and took the money. Common refrain in NBA economics is that the players got raped (No Cosby) during the 2010 CBA and that 2017 CBA, with new TV money and exploding franchise valuations in all, will see owners make concessions.
That would be a disastrous position to take! The NBA is an ultimate players league and the owners have never had any real leverage. The elephant in the room is that the owners know the vast majority of NBA players live check-to-check and when them checks go away, the players will agree to almost anything. Think I’m lying; in 1998 the revenue share was 58-42 in favor of the players. In 2015, the revenue split is 58-42 in favor of the owners.
While I think new NBAPA executive director Michelle Roberts is brilliant and a fighter, the players approve the CBA. In 2010, the players agreed to a 58-42 revenue split after missing only two checks! In 2017, I think the owners will lock out the players until groundhogs day and get an even larger split.
An influx of money is a curse to anyone who lives check-to-check. The good dough comes in, you get used to it and after missing a couple of check, you’ll take a loss just to get the money flowing again.
Unless NBA players change their financial habits in the next 24 months, its smart of the Jimmy Butler’s of the world to take the long-term money. Who know what the split will be in 2017! If the players agree to a 35 or 30 percent share, I’d feel more comfortable having my long-term deal on the books.
That is of course if Lebron has his way…
Everybody Eating
I am a Jordan disciple all day, but what Lebron is doing is just remarkable. I’ve never witnessed a player leverage his power so effectively! Lebron is functioning as owner, GM, agent and coach without any meaningful backlash associated with it. I feel him, dude can realistically justify a 60 million per year NBA salary but has to settle for 20 million due to the socialist economic practices of the NBA.
If Lebron can’t get paid, he’s going to control every other aspect. Lebron is 30 and the common thought is that he has maybe four or five good years left in his career. This is true in the context of Lebron being a dynamic wing player. When considering his size, skill and athleticism, Lebron can regress athletically and be Draymond Green in five years. The same Draymond Green that just signed for 80-plus million.
It is realistic to assume that Lebron can play five more years as an elite, MVP caliber wing, and another 5-7 as a Draymond-type stretch four. That’s another 12 years!
Lebron is hell-bent on getting the max player cap removed in 2017 so he can get a five year deal with no max (can you say 45-50 a year for Lebron from 17-21) and then a fat Kobe-like five year deal at around 35-40 in his last few years.
Lebron is touted for his leadership on the court but he would go down in my book as the greatest leader in sports and labor relations if he can get the players to coalesce around his vision for the 2017 CBA. If it can be done, Lebron is the one to do it!
If the players soundly defeat the NBA in the 2017 CBA, prepare for ballin like you’ve never seen.
Phallacy of the Glamour Market
LaMarcus Aldridge chose Dallas over Hollywood, Greg Monroe chose Milwaukee over Gotham, Deandre Jordan LEFT Malibu for Dallas. What the fuck is going on! The major free agent pick-ups in NYC and LA are Aaron Aflalo and Lou Williams (no shade to Lou, I can respect any man that openly rolls around with two girlfriends) but this shit is crazy.
This is more than institutional instability from the Lakers and Knicks, this is players realizing the cosmopolitization (I think I made up a new word) of the rest of the country and the appreciation for stars in middle-America.
Outside of ridiculous taxes and outlandish costs of living of LA and NYC, players see Reggie Miller in Nap-town and he’s still a legend. David Robinson will never buy a drink in San Antonio. Karl Malone can be the mayor of Salt Lake City. Meanwhile, in New York and LA NBA players are just a blip in the craziness (no shade to Magic and Walt Clyde).
See, in LA the Clooney, Will and Leo are the show stoppers. In NYC, NBA players can get a documentary but the blockbusters are reserved for the wolves of Wall St. Twenty-Five years from now, Dirk will still be the man in Dallas while Melo currently isn’t the biggest star in Chelsea, let alone Manhattan.
Free Agency Winners
Atlanta
Atlanta resigned Milsap, a two-time All-Star stretch for four at a reasonable length and salary and addressed their rebounding and post defense deficiencies by getting Tiago Splitter for literally nothing. While Tim Hardaway, Jr. may not be better than DeMarre Carolle today, he projects to be a better player at 1/10 of the cost. Also, after seeing how Shump and JR improved in Cleveland, having Tim Jr. in a stable environment may be a better comeup than expected. On that note, stay out of Onyx Tim.
New Orleans
Anthony Davis, only 22 years old and already the 2nd best player in league, has added the three point shot to his game and he’ll be in the French Qwuotah for the next six years. If the Pelicans are competent with personnel from now thru 2021 then they will win a ring! Davis is that good!
Golden State
They kept Draymond, are close to extending Barnes and had the foresight to sign Klay in the fall for 4 years at 70 million. For context, Reggie Jackson will make 10 million more than Klay over the next four years!
Speaking of foresight, the losers all lacked it!
Losers or Teams I’m Hating On!
Chicago
People say I’m a homer and I am but the Bulls blew it big not resigning Butler in October. The Bulls offered Butler 4 years 44 million, he wanted 4 years 48 million, he signed for 5 years at 90 million.
The Bulls had to know that the cap was jumping and teams would over-pay players this summer. They let a million per season cost them 27 million over the next three years. As a result there are only three team without cap major flexibility: the Warrior (champs), Cavs (conference champs with a healthy Kyrie, Love, and Varejao returning) and the Bulls.
The Bulls can carve out 11 million in cap space next year but with the cap jumping to 90 million next year, 11 million will only get you a back-up. Consider this, if Rose gets hurt again (for the fourth consecutive year), with two years left on his deal, the Bulls will have to try to find his replacement! Had the Bulls signed Jimmy in October, they would have had 17.5 million next summer. 17.5 million might have got them a Jeff Teague, 11 million will not!
Spurs
I know, they signed Aldridge and David West. I know this! Not signing Kawhi in October really compromised their bench. Timmy has been able to play at a high level because Splitter does the dirty work defensively. Aldridge canceled his meeting with the Knicks because they wanted him to play center and he will not play the five in San Antonio. To expect Timmy to be as effective at age 40 while playing the five is just not realistic.
The difference in not signing Kawhi’s in October cost the Spurs their best wing ball handler and shot creator and, likely, their back-up point guard.
The Spurs are real contenders but I’d feel much more comfortable giving them that label had they been able to keep Belli and Patty.
Cavs
Tristan Thompson wanted 48 million over four years and like the Bulls and Spurs, they’re going to have to come up off the max to keep Thompson. They overpaid for Shump and anything one dollar over the league minimum for Dellavadova is an overpayment.
The Cavs appeasement of Lebron will fuck up their front-court and their overall flow. The Cavs are best when Lebron is at the four. There’s no way around it! The Lebron four-one pick and roll is unstoppable.
With Love, Thompson, Varajao and Mozgov, Lebron will not see any time at the four. Also, Thompson’s check will likely cost them JR Smith. So Lebron will be ball handling at the three, with two bigs and minus JR Smith’s shooting.
I just don’t see that offense clicking next year.
What the Fuck?
Sacramento Kings
I have no clue what the Kings are doing. I’m not even talking about hiring Divac as an ambassador then giving him a stake in organizational control; I’m not talking about trying to fire George Karl in less than 7 months; I’m not talking about trying to lure Calipari from Kentucky, nor signing Rondo and pairing him with William Trill (that’s his real middle name) Cauley-Stein.
I’m concerned with the Kings trading Nick Staukas, Carl Landry and Jason Thompson in a salary dump for whom?
Did they really think they were going to sign Tobias Harris (who turned down their max offer)? The Kings then paid Rondo 10 mil and promised him a starting job when Darren Collison is significantly better than Rondo.
I know Staukas was underwhelming last year but the Kings had him under control for the next three years at roughly 9.6 million. For context, Cory Joseph just signed for 30 million over four years and Rodney Stuckey signed for 21 million over three years. A top-10 pick with that much price control is too valuable to give up when the cap will jump to 90 and 108 million in the next two years.
The Kings are a shit show! But I hope NBATV puts next year’s association in Sacramento! I would gladly get cable back to see Boogie, Rondo, Cauley-Stein and Karl interact with Vivek and Divac overseeing everything. That would for real be the best show on TV!
Philly
Sam Hinkie, a Daryl Morey disciple, and 76ers got fooled by James Harden and the OKC Thunder.
See, Daryl Morey isn’t this gatherer of assets GM that the media portrays him as. Morey knows talent trumps all and takes gambles on ballers. Think I’m lying; nothing about the Josh Smith signing fits the media’s portrayal of Morey.
Hinkie on the other hand is operating under a dated and supposed Morey personnel model that was never substantiated. See, these asset gathering GMs can’t swing the big deal. Ainge wasn’t able to convince Charlotte to take 6 picks for fucking Frank Kaminsky daft slot.
The asset collecting GMs point to the James Harden trade as validation for their philosophy when the Harden trade was resultant of a cheap ownership’s mandate to avoid the luxury tax. Had OKC’s ownership anticipated the cap exploding as such, they would have never traded James Harden. In 24 months, it’s highly likely that 25 teams will operate an entire season under the cap.
Philly’s Sam Hinkie doesn’t recognize the changing paradigm. Philly has all these assets and wants to swing a deal for a star but, if the current CBA holds past 2017, a star will not be available for at least ten years! Think I’m lying; Reggie Jackson (a back-up in OKC) just signed for 80 million. I cannot envision a scenario where a potential star ever gets traded for financial reason again.
Hinkie has only one recourse, draft a star! The thing with that is he takes the best player on the board regardless of position. So instead of having Giannis, Elfrid Payton and Jahlil Okafor, Philly’s only real assets are Noel and Okafor.
Those two can’t play together and if Embiid gets healthy, it further limits their ability to develop. Hinkie compounded the problem by adding Carl Landry and Jason Thompson (legitimate rotation players) to the mix in the front-court. Unless he plans to sit them all year, they will do nothing but stunt the growth of the baby Sixers.
Oh, and the thing about bigs, you kinda need a point guard to get them the ball. I can make a convincing case that every guard and wing on the Sixers belongs in the D-League. Good luck developing those baby bigs.
Detroit
Somebody always has to take it too far or, as man guy Dave Chapelle say’s, takes it to the abyss. Detroit was doing a good job of rebuilding until they re-upped Reggie Jackson for 80 fucking million dollars!
See, I know what happened here. The spirit of Kwame Kilpatrick took over Stan Van Gundy who saw Reggie Jackson as a cute council member or a stripper at Dirty’s Lounge and couldn’t resist. Next thing you know, the Pistons are on the books for 80 million for an average point guard.
Making the Case for Owners in Collective Bargaining
I am pro-labor but my sentiments are turning with the NBA. Teams are often criticized for making bad deals (see Reggie Jackson) and players are often criticized for making too much (I feel un-American just typing that) but there may be some truth to this.
The NBA isn’t a true free market. If we viewed the NBA as one company instead of 30 franchises then you’d get my drift. See, when I get hired, I get told which office I’ll be working in. I work for one of the largest insurance companies in the world and if 105 world-wide offices of Aon had to bid for me, I’d be making a lot more money.
This sort of inflation is what drives NBA salaries. Unlike my situation, NBA players are supported by agents who are, in many instances, JDs, MBAs, or both, with a team of researchers and lawyers preparing their negotiations.
These agents negotiate all day against Coca-Cola, Nike, Ford, Samsung, Verizon, etc. The agents relish going into a negotiation with a GM whose previous experience is either a former player or scout/video guy.
The teams get slayed all the time (Kyle Sigler just signed for 25 million). In my opinion, the gains the league makes in collective bargaining are immediately returned to the players in the form of internal competition for personnel talent.
I know, the recourse for the league is to beef up their personnel but CBA is simply too complex and changes so frequently for every team to have a suitable staff capable of having command of the CBA while being able to evaluate collegiate, overseas, and existing talent. Keep in mind team personnel is responsible for getting ahead analytically and preforming in-season scouting to assist coaches with game planning.
If the talent existed, there only be a dozen teams that make the revenue to pay the talent.
Sorry for the infrequent posts but I’m sure 2600 words made up for the delay!
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